tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 4936 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record LGA 08:55 BHM 10:30 21% 6% 3.7% 79%
DL 4942 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record LGA 15:08 BHM 16:55 31% 13% 4.9% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017 6h 10m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 13:32 → BHM 13:25DL 3012 5h 25m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → LGA 10:15 → IAH 13:06UA 2617 1h 19m Houston IAH 14:25 → BHM 16:20UA 6120 · flown by Mesa 7h 05m 93% 83%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:04 → BHM 15:05DL 3163 6h 05m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084 1h 09m Charlotte CLT 09:07 → BHM 09:47AA 5043 · flown by PSA 4h 47m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → LGA 14:01 → ATL 16:22DL 988 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → BHM 19:01DL 3044 6h 00m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → LGA 12:55 → DTW 14:51DL 1122 1h 48m Detroit DTW 16:39 → BHM 17:43DL 3062 5h 48m 95% 78%
AmericanDetails → LGA 07:15 → DFW 10:08AA 1597 2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:57 → BHM 14:49AA 3884 · flown by Envoy 8h 34m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:35 → MIA 21:49AA 3088 1h 07m Miami MIA 22:56 → BHM 23:59AA 3427 · flown by Envoy 6h 24m 75% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON