Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2048 at 06:54 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2048 LGA 06:54 → BNA 08:18 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4797 LGA 17:44 → BNA 19:08 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2048 Southwest	LGA 06:54	BNA 08:18	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
YX 4370 Republic	LGA 09:11	BNA 10:47	9%	2%	1.3%	no record
YX 5617 Republic	LGA 09:00	BNA 10:29	10%	2%	1.2%	no record
AA 4380 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:52	BNA 16:27	15%	5%	2.1%	65%
WN 1711 Southwest	LGA 13:29	BNA 14:53	15%	5%	1.7%	no record
DL 1024 Delta	LGA 16:32	BNA 18:02	16%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 1008 American	LGA 17:12	BNA 18:35	22%	10%	1.2%	no record
WN 4797 Southwest	LGA 17:44	BNA 19:08	27%	10%	1.3%	no record
DL 5438 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:30	BNA 12:00	22%	10%	1.9%	78%
DL 5002 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:27	BNA 19:19	38%	18%	15.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON