Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5793 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 5793 LGA 06:57 → BOS 08:03 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 1751 LGA 18:14 → BOS 19:25 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5793 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:57	BOS 08:03	4%	2%	1.1%	96%
YX 4628 Republic	LGA 09:14	BOS 10:35	8%	2%	1.3%	no record
DL 5728 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:14	BOS 11:27	9%	3%	1.2%	86%
DL 5739 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:01	BOS 15:27	17%	7%	1.7%	80%
AA 4430 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:08	BOS 15:44	18%	7%	1.6%	55%
AA 4724 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:20	BOS 19:37	24%	10%	1.8%	59%
DL 1751 Delta	LGA 18:14	BOS 19:25	29%	13%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON