Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4738 LGA 09:55 → BUF 11:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest DL 5792 LGA 19:47 → BUF 21:11 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4738 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:55	BUF 11:26	8%	2%	1.5%	75%
DL 5797 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:52	BUF 13:38	9%	3%	1.7%	70%
AA 4496 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:15	BUF 17:53	10%	5%	1.9%	69%
DL 5792 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:47	BUF 21:11	11%	6%	2.0%	81%
DL 5397 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 21:59	BUF 23:32	39%	20%	15.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON