tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Boston, leaving 06:57, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:57 → BOS 08:03DL 5793 · flown by Republic 1h 28m Boston BOS 09:31 → BWI 11:13DL 5668 · flown by Republic 4h 16m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:25 → MSP 08:18DL 2510 2h 16m Minneapolis MSP 10:34 → BWI 14:03DL 2357 7h 38m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231 2h 20m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 5h 42m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BWI 13:07DL 2711 7h 07m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078 3h 45m Detroit DTW 15:09 → BWI 16:45DL 2480 7h 20m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 15:00 → MSP 17:26DL 2349 2h 19m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918 8h 13m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 13:59 → BWI 15:49DL 2799 6h 49m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → LGA 15:06 → DTW 16:56DL 308 3h 00m Detroit DTW 19:56 → BWI 21:36DL 2715 6h 30m 98% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON