Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:25 → MSP 08:18DL 2510	2h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → BZN 12:35DL 2946	8h 10m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:18 → BZN 13:20DL 406	9h 20m	99%	86%
United Details →	LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224	7h 34m	98%	85%
United Details →	LGA 10:04 → DEN 12:27UA 716	1h 03m Denver	DEN 13:30 → BZN 15:18UA 513	7h 14m	91%	79%
American Details →	LGA 07:15 → DFW 10:08AA 1597	3h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:21 → BZN 15:35AA 947	10h 20m	99%	76%
United Details →	LGA 13:22 → ORD 15:01UA 1967	1h 58m Chicago	ORD 16:59 → BZN 19:18UA 1920	7h 56m	94%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON