Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3084 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 3084 LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 2232 LGA 17:08 → CLT 19:04 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3084 American Flight history →	LGA 06:00	CLT 07:58	5%	2%	1.1%	96%
YX 5750 Republic	LGA 12:29	CLT 14:34	11%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 3279 American Flight history →	LGA 08:11	CLT 09:58	14%	3%	1.1%	92%
AA 1150 American Flight history →	LGA 12:10	CLT 14:14	15%	6%	1.2%	84%
AA 2036 American Flight history →	LGA 11:06	CLT 12:56	15%	4%	1.2%	89%
DL 5711 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:11	CLT 18:58	18%	7%	1.4%	86%
AA 2033 American Flight history →	LGA 14:31	CLT 16:53	18%	9%	2.1%	64%
F9 3133 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 19:49	CLT 21:50	20%	12%	2.1%	60%
AA 1942 American Flight history →	LGA 18:22	CLT 20:27	21%	10%	1.7%	67%
AA 2232 American	LGA 17:08	CLT 19:04	24%	9%	1.3%	no record
DL 5051 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 09:00	CLT 11:10	21%	6%	6.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON