Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5686 LGA 09:30 → CMH 11:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 5671 LGA 17:22 → CMH 19:21 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5686 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:30	CMH 11:22	8%	2%	1.2%	86%
AA 4462 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:58	CMH 18:58	9%	6%	1.1%	77%
YX 4381 Republic	LGA 11:15	CMH 13:14	9%	4%	1.2%	no record
DL 5671 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:22	CMH 19:21	12%	8%	1.2%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON