Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5770 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 5770 LGA 07:05 → DCA 08:32 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 5717 LGA 17:11 → DCA 18:34 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5770 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:05	DCA 08:32	5%	2%	1.0%	89%
AA 4456 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:35	DCA 08:59	7%	2%	1.1%	36%
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:50	DCA 11:16	8%	2%	1.1%	83%
YX 4595 Republic	LGA 10:25	DCA 11:39	9%	2%	1.1%	no record
DL 5749 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:40	DCA 13:05	10%	3%	1.2%	78%
DL 5724 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:10	DCA 21:01	12%	8%	1.8%	50%
AA 4736 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:25	DCA 19:07	15%	7%	1.7%	74%
DL 5709 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:45	DCA 16:24	16%	6%	1.7%	61%
DL 5717 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:11	DCA 18:34	17%	7%	1.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON