Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 751 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 751 LGA 07:45 → DEN 09:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 2534 LGA 16:29 → DEN 18:43 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 751 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:45	DEN 09:53	8%	2%	0.8%	84%
UA 716 United Flight history →	LGA 10:04	DEN 12:27	9%	3%	0.7%	95%
UA 644 United	LGA 07:42	DEN 10:05	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2200 United Flight history →	LGA 12:19	DEN 14:33	11%	4%	0.8%	87%
WN 2531 Southwest	LGA 08:14	DEN 10:28	11%	2%	1.0%	no record
UA 2028 United	LGA 15:27	DEN 17:58	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 716 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:27	DEN 18:44	22%	6%	0.8%	71%
WN 2534 Southwest	LGA 16:29	DEN 18:43	25%	6%	1.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LGA 12:55 → DTW 14:51DL 1122	1h 10m Detroit	DTW 16:01 → DEN 17:07DL 2431	6h 12m	91%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON