Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1043 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1043 LGA 06:09 → DFW 09:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest F9 3423 LGA 22:55 → DFW 01:34 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1043 American Flight history →	LGA 06:09	DFW 09:05	7%	3%	2.0%	61%
AA 1597 American Flight history →	LGA 07:15	DFW 10:08	8%	3%	1.8%	89%
DL 873 Delta Flight history →	LGA 08:30	DFW 11:15	9%	4%	1.1%	78%
AA 1987 American Flight history →	LGA 08:35	DFW 11:25	11%	4%	1.9%	81%
AA 3289 American Flight history →	LGA 08:51	DFW 11:24	14%	4%	1.8%	77%
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:29	DFW 15:10	14%	6%	1.2%	75%
AA 2088 American Flight history →	LGA 11:15	DFW 13:52	15%	5%	2.1%	85%
AA 1609 American Flight history →	LGA 12:53	DFW 15:52	19%	7%	2.2%	71%
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	DFW 20:13	20%	10%	2.0%	65%
AA 1056 American Flight history →	LGA 14:11	DFW 16:47	23%	9%	4.0%	65%
AA 1608 American Flight history →	LGA 16:16	DFW 19:06	25%	10%	3.6%	63%
F9 3423 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 22:55	DFW 01:34	29%	14%	5.2%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON