Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Des Moines on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4395 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:04	DSM 19:16	20%	10%	1.3%	67%
DL 4904 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:02	DSM 19:15	35%	18%	5.8%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704	5h 45m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 14:05 → DSM 15:20DL 2094	7h 20m	99%	87%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	2h 44m Charlotte	CLT 10:42 → DSM 12:12AA 2962	7h 12m	98%	82%
United Details →	LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389	1h 29m Chicago	ORD 09:18 → DSM 10:37UA 466	5h 27m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:51 → ATL 18:14DL 969	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306	7h 38m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231	50m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → DSM 09:44DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor	4h 39m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:10 → MSP 12:11DL 2409	3h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 15:40 → DSM 16:54DL 4913 · flown by Endeavor	7h 44m	99%	78%
United Details →	LGA 10:04 → DEN 12:27UA 716	1h 03m Denver	DEN 13:30 → DSM 16:15UA 1311	7h 11m	91%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON