Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1231 LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 4414 LGA 17:01 → DTW 18:55 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1231 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:05	DTW 07:55	3%	2%	0.8%	96%
DL 1078 Delta Flight history →	LGA 09:25	DTW 11:24	7%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 4339 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:45	DTW 13:49	9%	3%	0.9%	73%
DL 308 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:06	DTW 16:56	10%	4%	0.9%	79%
DL 999 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	DTW 19:39	11%	7%	0.9%	74%
DL 1122 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:55	DTW 14:51	12%	4%	0.9%	81%
AA 4414 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:01	DTW 18:55	13%	6%	1.3%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON