Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2465 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 2465 LGA 07:20 → FLL 10:22 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest B6 371 LGA 18:37 → FLL 21:34 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2465 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:20	FLL 10:22	14%	3%	4.8%	81%
B6 1471 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:30	FLL 10:35	18%	4%	3.6%	82%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:15	FLL 14:18	18%	5%	2.1%	75%
AA 968 American	LGA 08:08	FLL 11:15	19%	3%	3.1%	no record
AA 2836 American	LGA 12:09	FLL 15:22	20%	6%	2.9%	no record
DL 2321 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:30	FLL 18:57	21%	7%	2.2%	66%
B6 271 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 08:10	FLL 11:06	22%	5%	3.6%	80%
B6 1371 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 12:00	FLL 15:03	27%	10%	2.8%	61%
B6 371 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 18:37	FLL 21:34	31%	15%	4.0%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON