Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4775 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:34	GRR 13:01	9%	3%	1.4%	50%
YX 5723 Republic	LGA 12:55	GRR 14:55	12%	4%	1.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → GRR 12:21DL 2547	6h 21m	99%	88%
United Details →	LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389	2h 48m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → GRR 12:50UA 1297	6h 40m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	LGA 12:00 → ATL 14:32DL 993	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → GRR 18:58DL 2058	6h 58m	99%	84%
American Details →	LGA 07:35 → DCA 08:59AA 4456 · flown by Republic	2h 40m Washington	DCA 11:39 → GRR 13:37AA 5039 · flown by PSA	6h 02m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:10 → MSP 12:11DL 2409	56m Minneapolis	MSP 13:07 → GRR 15:36DL 1245	5h 26m	89%	81%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:51 → ATL 18:14DL 969	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → GRR 23:17DL 2865	7h 26m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231	55m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → GRR 09:54DL 3500 · flown by SkyWest	3h 49m	96%	78%
American Details →	LGA 18:54 → ORD 20:10AA 1795	2h 17m Chicago	ORD 22:27 → GRR 00:24 +1AA 3793 · flown by Envoy	5h 30m	92%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 18:54 → ORD 20:10AA 1795	48m Chicago	ORD 20:58 → GRR 23:00AA 3177	4h 06m	62%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON