Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 12:05, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 431 Southwest	LGA 06:44	HOU 09:37	3%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 1158 Southwest	LGA 16:24	HOU 18:59	19%	8%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	8h 22m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:51 → ATL 18:14DL 969	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 00m	97%	74%
American Details →	LGA 12:53 → DFW 15:52AA 1609	2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:37 → HOU 19:58AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	8h 05m	94%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON