tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 6242 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record LGA 10:29 IAD 11:55 18% 7% 4.3% 82%
UA 6244 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record LGA 19:28 IAD 20:55 31% 22% 14.7% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:00 → ATL 09:30DL 342 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135 7h 26m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:25 → MSP 08:18DL 2510 1h 39m Minneapolis MSP 09:57 → IAD 13:33DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 7h 08m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 15:00 → MSP 17:26DL 2349 2h 24m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 8h 20m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231 2h 27m Detroit DTW 10:22 → IAD 11:47DL 3082 5h 42m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 54m Chicago ORD 08:43 → IAD 11:55UA 2277 5h 45m 93% 84%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078 3h 23m Detroit DTW 14:47 → IAD 16:22DL 1787 6h 57m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → LGA 12:00 → ATL 14:32DL 993 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309 8h 23m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695 8h 14m 100% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:22 → CLT 20:27AA 1942 48m Charlotte CLT 21:15 → IAD 22:42AA 2608 4h 20m 68% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON