Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 575 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–13%.

Safest bet that day UA 575 LGA 05:56 → IAH 08:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2674 LGA 14:00 → IAH 17:01 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 575 United	LGA 05:56	IAH 08:53	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2371 United Flight history →	LGA 07:47	IAH 10:45	8%	2%	0.7%	93%
UA 2133 United	LGA 20:27	IAH 23:21	11%	8%	0.7%	no record
DL 2099 Delta Flight history →	LGA 08:59	IAH 11:38	11%	3%	0.7%	76%
UA 2617 United Flight history →	LGA 10:15	IAH 13:06	13%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 2109 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:20	IAH 20:40	13%	10%	0.8%	65%
UA 2674 United Flight history →	LGA 14:00	IAH 17:01	16%	6%	0.7%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON