Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5186 LGA 10:34 → ILM 12:25 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest YX 4404 LGA 15:47 → ILM 17:48 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5186 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 10:34	ILM 12:25	9%	3%	1.2%	80%
YX 4451 Republic	LGA 08:47	ILM 10:46	10%	2%	1.1%	no record
DL 5212 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 15:58	ILM 17:35	13%	6%	1.7%	73%
YX 4404 Republic	LGA 15:47	ILM 17:48	15%	6%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON