Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4387 LGA 09:34 → IND 11:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5635 LGA 17:59 → IND 20:05 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4387 Republic	LGA 09:34	IND 11:56	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
YX 5741 Republic	LGA 09:23	IND 11:40	8%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 4458 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:23	IND 20:39	12%	7%	1.3%	75%
YX 4409 Republic	LGA 15:56	IND 18:16	12%	5%	1.1%	no record
DL 5635 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:59	IND 20:05	15%	8%	1.2%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON