tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Jacksonville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:25 → MSP 08:18DL 2510 1h 57m Minneapolis MSP 10:15 → JAX 14:06DL 2392 7h 41m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:57 → BOS 08:03DL 5793 · flown by Republic 1h 28m Boston BOS 09:31 → JAX 12:30DL 5597 · flown by Republic 5h 33m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → JAX 13:25DL 3024 7h 25m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:00 → ATL 09:30DL 342 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923 5h 00m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084 2h 47m Charlotte CLT 10:45 → JAX 12:12AA 1925 6h 12m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 2h 39m Chicago ORD 10:28 → JAX 13:57UA 8113 7h 47m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 14:07 → JAX 15:19DL 2990 6h 19m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:47 → IAH 10:45UA 2371 1h 25m Houston IAH 12:10 → JAX 15:37UA 4048 · flown by Mesa 7h 50m 95% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:35 → MIA 21:49AA 3088 1h 04m Miami MIA 22:53 → JAX 00:15 +1AA 416 5h 40m 73% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON