tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:25 → MSP 08:18DL 2510 3h 12m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 9h 58m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:00 → ATL 09:30DL 342 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 10h 12m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:57 → BOS 08:03DL 5793 · flown by Republic 2h 52m Boston BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004 10h 06m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:40 → DCA 13:05DL 5749 · flown by Republic 3h 40m Washington DCA 16:45 → LAX 19:19DL 392 10h 39m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:45 → DEN 09:53DL 751 2h 30m Denver DEN 12:23 → LAX 13:50DL 2148 9h 05m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 10h 17m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:30 → BNA 12:04DL 5438 · flown by Endeavor 2h 47m Nashville BNA 14:51 → LAX 17:02DL 355 9h 32m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → LGA 12:55 → DTW 14:51DL 1122 3h 29m Detroit DTW 18:20 → LAX 20:04DL 852 10h 09m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LGA 13:22 → ORD 15:01UA 1967 46m Chicago ORD 15:47 → LAX 18:20UA 576 7h 58m 74% 56%
JetBlueDetails → LGA 12:00 → FLL 15:03B6 1371 53m Fort Lauderdale FLL 15:56 → LAX 18:19B6 101 9h 19m 68% 47%
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:54 → ORD 20:10AA 1795 1h 03m Chicago ORD 21:13 → LAX 23:28AA 1114 7h 34m 71% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON