Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Little Rock on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:48 → LIT 10:28DL 3040	5h 28m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	LGA 12:00 → ATL 14:32DL 993	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 16:32 → LIT 17:12DL 3025	6h 12m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 15:14 → LIT 15:49DL 3027	7h 49m	100%	83%
American Details →	LGA 06:09 → DFW 09:05AA 1043	2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:46 → LIT 13:08AA 3898 · flown by Envoy	7h 59m	98%	82%
United Details →	LGA 14:00 → IAH 17:01UA 2674	1h 19m Houston	IAH 18:20 → LIT 20:01UA 6150 · flown by Mesa	7h 01m	92%	78%
American Details →	LGA 11:15 → DFW 13:52AA 2088	1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:49 → LIT 17:10AA 4309 · flown by Envoy	6h 55m	94%	75%
Delta Details →	LGA 14:01 → ATL 16:22DL 988	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 19:09 → LIT 19:44DL 2701	6h 43m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	LGA 18:00 → ATL 21:20DL 964	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → LIT 23:14DL 2083	6h 14m	92%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 18:22 → CLT 20:27AA 1942	48m Charlotte	CLT 21:15 → LIT 22:28AA 3692 · flown by Envoy	5h 06m	68%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON