Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1164 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 1164 LGA 07:00 → MCO 09:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 399 LGA 16:01 → MCO 18:46 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:43	8%	3%	4.7%	90%
B6 599 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:40	MCO 10:23	12%	4%	4.9%	89%
AA 3038 American	LGA 07:41	MCO 10:27	13%	3%	5.5%	no record
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:49	MCO 14:42	14%	3%	2.0%	80%
DL 2520 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:55	MCO 19:17	18%	8%	2.1%	62%
B6 499 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 10:00	MCO 12:51	19%	6%	11.5%	65%
DL 2561 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:59	MCO 22:18	19%	10%	2.3%	68%
AA 1943 American Flight history →	LGA 15:06	MCO 17:55	22%	8%	2.6%	67%
B6 399 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 16:01	MCO 18:46	31%	16%	2.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON