Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1249 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1249 LGA 06:00 → MIA 09:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3135 LGA 17:11 → MIA 20:22 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1249 American Flight history →	LGA 06:00	MIA 09:15	8%	2%	1.5%	94%
DL 2347 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:10	MIA 10:19	11%	3%	1.2%	89%
AA 1530 American Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MIA 10:15	13%	3%	1.5%	88%
AA 970 American Flight history →	LGA 08:00	MIA 11:15	17%	3%	1.3%	86%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:15	MIA 14:24	21%	5%	1.2%	77%
DL 1620 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:59	MIA 22:36	21%	11%	1.2%	58%
AA 3211 American Flight history →	LGA 09:28	MIA 12:45	22%	3%	1.8%	76%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:40	MIA 19:23	26%	10%	1.2%	63%
AA 605 American Flight history →	LGA 13:12	MIA 16:15	26%	7%	1.8%	68%
AA 3088 American Flight history →	LGA 18:35	MIA 21:49	28%	11%	2.1%	35%
AA 2525 American	LGA 15:48	MIA 19:04	30%	9%	1.7%	no record
AA 3135 American Flight history →	LGA 17:11	MIA 20:22	33%	11%	2.1%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON