Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 5677 Republic	LGA 10:09	MKE 11:37	10%	3%	1.5%	no record
DL 5780 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:00	MKE 17:48	13%	6%	1.9%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 10:49 → MKE 11:51DL 1151	6h 51m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	LGA 07:00 → ATL 09:30DL 342	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → MKE 13:50DL 1246	7h 50m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:10 → MSP 12:11DL 2409	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 13:43 → MKE 15:02DL 2006	5h 52m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → MKE 16:59DL 1206	7h 59m	99%	83%
United Details →	LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 10:44 → MKE 11:45UA 5234 · flown by SkyWest	6h 35m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	LGA 14:01 → ATL 16:22DL 988	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → MKE 21:02DL 2388	8h 01m	98%	79%
United Details →	LGA 10:15 → IAH 13:06UA 2617	1h 27m Houston	IAH 14:33 → MKE 17:28UA 6139 · flown by Mesa	8h 13m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:06 → DTW 16:56DL 308	3h 04m Detroit	DTW 20:00 → MKE 20:20DL 3724 · flown by SkyWest	6h 14m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON