Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 5624 Republic	LGA 15:15	MSN 17:04	15%	6%	1.8%	no record
YX 4338 Republic	LGA 17:33	MSN 19:16	21%	10%	2.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:53 → MSN 12:54DL 2681	7h 54m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:00 → MSP 17:26DL 2349	3h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 21:24 → MSN 22:31DL 1599	8h 31m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:25 → MSP 08:18DL 2510	1h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	5h 54m	98%	85%
American Details →	LGA 07:35 → DCA 08:59AA 4456 · flown by Republic	1h 08m Washington	DCA 10:07 → MSN 11:36AA 5221 · flown by PSA	5h 01m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	LGA 12:55 → DTW 14:51DL 1122	2h 03m Detroit	DTW 16:54 → MSN 17:20DL 5214 · flown by Endeavor	5h 25m	95%	81%
American Details →	LGA 09:26 → ORD 10:59AA 2223	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 13:59 → MSN 15:05AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	6h 39m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:51 → ATL 18:14DL 969	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38DL 2144	7h 47m	98%	78%
American Details →	LGA 08:08 → ORD 09:45AA 392	1h 49m Chicago	ORD 11:34 → MSN 12:39AA 6256 · flown by SkyWest	5h 31m	96%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON