Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2510 LGA 06:25 → MSP 08:18 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2313 LGA 18:05 → MSP 20:44 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2510 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:25	MSP 08:18	3%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 2409 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:10	MSP 12:11	9%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 2349 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:00	MSP 17:26	11%	5%	0.7%	75%
DL 2313 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:05	MSP 20:44	11%	7%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON