Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2405 Delta Flight history →	LGA 08:51	MSY 10:59	11%	3%	1.1%	68%
AA 1675 American	LGA 14:38	MSY 16:49	19%	8%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	6h 37m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:10 → MSP 12:11DL 2409	3h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 15:36 → MSY 18:20DL 2695	9h 10m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:57 → BOS 08:03DL 5793 · flown by Republic	3h 17m Boston	BOS 11:20 → MSY 13:56DL 1398	7h 59m	100%	84%
American Details →	LGA 07:35 → DCA 08:59AA 4456 · flown by Republic	2h 03m Washington	DCA 11:02 → MSY 12:52AA 2586	6h 17m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231	55m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → MSY 10:24DL 2790	5h 19m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	6h 17m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146	6h 57m	99%	80%
United Details →	LGA 10:15 → IAH 13:06UA 2617	2h 19m Houston	IAH 15:25 → MSY 16:33UA 2738	7h 18m	96%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 13:12 → MIA 16:15AA 605	54m Miami	MIA 17:09 → MSY 18:26AA 1680	6h 14m	70%	47%
American Details →	LGA 18:54 → ORD 20:10AA 1795	56m Chicago	ORD 21:06 → MSY 23:34AA 3256	5h 40m	66%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON