Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Oklahoma City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 4426 Republic	LGA 12:00	OKC 14:57	12%	5%	2.2%	no record
DL 5199 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 18:15	OKC 21:10	38%	18%	4.5%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 09:53 → OKC 11:08DL 2490	6h 08m	98%	87%
American Details →	LGA 07:35 → DCA 08:59AA 4456 · flown by Republic	3h 29m Washington	DCA 12:28 → OKC 14:48AA 5017 · flown by PSA	8h 13m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → OKC 14:56DL 2862	6h 56m	99%	82%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	2h 45m Charlotte	CLT 10:43 → OKC 12:25AA 1626	7h 25m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	LGA 12:00 → ATL 14:32DL 993	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 18:05 → OKC 19:16DL 2784	8h 16m	100%	73%
United Details →	LGA 10:04 → DEN 12:27UA 716	58m Denver	DEN 13:25 → OKC 16:10UA 1656	7h 06m	89%	72%
American Details →	LGA 06:09 → DFW 09:05AA 1043	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:40 → OKC 11:53AA 3099	6h 44m	96%	72%
United Details →	LGA 14:00 → IAH 17:01UA 2674	3h 05m Houston	IAH 20:06 → OKC 21:35UA 1084	8h 35m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON