Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5127 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 13:58	OMA 16:12	10%	5%	1.4%	82%
WN 2548 Southwest	LGA 14:24	OMA 16:51	18%	6%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:25 → MSP 08:18DL 2510	3h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 11:45 → OMA 13:11DL 3838 · flown by SkyWest	7h 46m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 13:44 → OMA 15:08DL 2364	7h 08m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	LGA 12:00 → ATL 14:32DL 993	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 17:20 → OMA 18:42DL 2707	7h 42m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 09:25 → OMA 10:43DL 1125	5h 43m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:06 → DTW 16:56DL 308	2h 49m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → OMA 20:53DL 3715 · flown by SkyWest	6h 47m	97%	83%
United Details →	LGA 10:04 → DEN 12:27UA 716	1h 23m Denver	DEN 13:50 → OMA 16:24UA 2327	7h 20m	95%	81%
United Details →	LGA 12:19 → DEN 14:33UA 2200	3h 32m Denver	DEN 18:05 → OMA 20:42UA 1436	9h 23m	98%	79%
United Details →	LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389	51m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → OMA 10:27UA 1778	5h 17m	89%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON