tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 58m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → LGA 14:00 → IAH 17:01UA 2674 3h 30m Houston IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563 10h 55m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → LGA 12:00 → ATL 14:32DL 993 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 30m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:09 → DFW 09:05AA 1043 3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:34AA 2635 10h 25m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → LGA 16:05 → ORD 17:57UA 1156 2h 21m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 9h 46m 93% 63%
AmericanDetails → LGA 12:53 → DFW 15:52AA 1609 3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:02 → ONT 20:18AA 2147 10h 25m 95% 57%
AmericanDetails → LGA 16:16 → DFW 19:06AA 1608 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:17 → ONT 22:29AA 1695 9h 13m 93% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON