Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 25 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2389 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 2389 LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1795 LGA 18:54 → ORD 20:10 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2389 United Flight history →	LGA 06:10	ORD 07:49	5%	2%	1.0%	89%
AA 1427 American	LGA 05:58	ORD 07:19	8%	3%	1.5%	no record
AA 1263 American	LGA 07:04	ORD 08:45	9%	3%	1.5%	no record
DL 2917 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:27	ORD 08:50	9%	3%	1.2%	81%
UA 1008 United	LGA 07:20	ORD 08:48	10%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 2057 American Flight history →	LGA 21:23	ORD 23:29	11%	7%	1.7%	55%
AA 392 American Flight history →	LGA 08:08	ORD 09:45	14%	3%	1.5%	87%
UA 1310 United Flight history →	LGA 10:15	ORD 11:57	14%	4%	1.0%	80%
UA 2768 United Flight history →	LGA 20:30	ORD 22:04	14%	8%	1.1%	47%
UA 1166 United	LGA 08:12	ORD 09:35	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 2223 American Flight history →	LGA 09:26	ORD 10:59	15%	4%	1.5%	88%
DL 2240 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:30	ORD 13:05	17%	5%	1.1%	74%
UA 1967 United Flight history →	LGA 13:22	ORD 15:01	17%	7%	1.0%	74%
AA 855 American	LGA 10:46	ORD 12:19	17%	5%	1.4%	no record
AA 2841 American	LGA 22:03	ORD 23:16	18%	8%	1.6%	no record
DL 2503 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:55	ORD 19:59	19%	9%	1.1%	62%
UA 1156 United Flight history →	LGA 16:05	ORD 17:57	20%	8%	1.4%	53%
AA 386 American	LGA 12:34	ORD 14:04	20%	7%	1.5%	no record
DL 2226 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:47	ORD 16:20	21%	8%	1.2%	64%
AA 396 American Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ORD 18:08	22%	7%	2.2%	64%
AA 1534 American	LGA 14:25	ORD 15:59	22%	8%	1.9%	no record
UA 1442 United	LGA 14:25	ORD 16:01	23%	9%	1.1%	no record
UA 1582 United Flight history →	LGA 19:31	ORD 20:59	23%	9%	1.0%	60%
UA 598 United Flight history →	LGA 18:30	ORD 19:59	27%	10%	1.1%	41%
AA 1795 American Flight history →	LGA 18:54	ORD 20:10	31%	9%	1.6%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON