Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Charlotte, leaving 08:11, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching Pensacola on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5156 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 09:54	PNS 11:57	10%	3%	4.8%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 07:00 → ATL 09:30DL 342	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 12:45 → PNS 12:55DL 1640	6h 55m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → PNS 14:41DL 1013	6h 41m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 10:34 → PNS 10:46DL 3198	5h 46m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	LGA 12:00 → ATL 14:32DL 993	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 16:55 → PNS 17:10DL 2211	6h 10m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:51 → ATL 18:14DL 969	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → PNS 21:59DL 3086	7h 08m	98%	82%
United Details →	LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389	3h 08m Chicago	ORD 10:57 → PNS 13:19UA 2492	8h 09m	100%	79%
American Details →	LGA 17:11 → MIA 20:22AA 3135	2h 46m Miami	MIA 23:08 → PNS 23:59AA 4109 · flown by Envoy	7h 48m	96%	78%
United Details →	LGA 14:00 → IAH 17:01UA 2674	3h 15m Houston	IAH 20:16 → PNS 21:55UA 488	8h 55m	98%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 18:22 → CLT 20:27AA 1942	56m Charlotte	CLT 21:23 → PNS 22:08AA 3131	4h 46m	71%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON