Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4571 LGA 08:55 → PWM 10:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest YX 5803 LGA 14:36 → PWM 15:58 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4571 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:55	PWM 10:25	7%	2%	1.1%	79%
YX 5816 Republic	LGA 10:20	PWM 11:47	9%	3%	1.1%	no record
YX 4515 Republic	LGA 13:05	PWM 14:31	11%	4%	1.5%	no record
YX 5806 Republic	LGA 19:55	PWM 21:06	12%	7%	1.9%	no record
YX 5803 Republic	LGA 14:36	PWM 15:58	14%	5%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON