Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4749 LGA 13:19 → RDU 15:14 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 2727 LGA 10:42 → RDU 12:24 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4749 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:19	RDU 15:14	8%	5%	1.5%	75%
DL 2015 Delta	LGA 11:24	RDU 13:04	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 4485 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:34	RDU 18:35	12%	7%	1.3%	48%
DL 2014 Delta	LGA 18:08	RDU 19:50	15%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 2727 American	LGA 10:42	RDU 12:24	17%	5%	1.1%	no record
DL 4666 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:35	RDU 10:24	25%	10%	3.8%	75%
DL 5232 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:20	RDU 19:28	28%	12%	2.8%	72%
DL 5109 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 15:30	RDU 17:35	29%	12%	8.0%	71%
DL 5502 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 11:20	RDU 13:12	32%	23%	3.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON