Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 5343 at 19:41, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5343 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 19:41	ROC 20:53	12%	7%	2.1%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231	2h 27m Detroit	DTW 10:22 → ROC 11:41DL 5100 · flown by Endeavor	5h 36m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078	2h 55m Detroit	DTW 14:19 → ROC 15:51DL 5211 · flown by Endeavor	6h 26m	99%	89%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	2h 24m Charlotte	CLT 10:22 → ROC 12:22AA 2742	6h 22m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 09:23 → ROC 11:31DL 2511	5h 31m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999	1h 50m Detroit	DTW 21:29 → ROC 22:45DL 1418	5h 45m	94%	73%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ROC 17:20DL 2047	8h 20m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:51 → ATL 18:14DL 969	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 21:39 → ROC 23:48DL 2472	7h 57m	98%	72%
American Details →	LGA 17:25 → DCA 19:07AA 4736 · flown by Republic	1h 18m Washington	DCA 20:25 → ROC 22:06AA 5344 · flown by PSA	4h 41m	87%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LGA 12:05 → ATL 14:26DL 990	49m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ROC 17:20DL 2047	5h 15m	72%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON