Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5637 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:40	SDF 13:01	10%	3%	1.1%	86%
DL 5651 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:10	SDF 18:51	11%	6%	1.1%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 10:14 → BOS 11:27DL 5728 · flown by Republic	2h 03m Boston	BOS 13:30 → SDF 16:19DL 5615 · flown by Republic	6h 05m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SDF 12:31DL 1481	6h 31m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:06 → DTW 16:56DL 308	2h 49m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic	6h 06m	97%	87%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	1h 36m Charlotte	CLT 09:34 → SDF 11:23AA 5922 · flown by Piedmont	5h 23m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 13:46 → SDF 15:05DL 3195	6h 05m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → SDF 17:15DL 1126	7h 15m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	LGA 12:00 → ATL 14:32DL 993	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13DL 2831	7h 13m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:51 → ATL 18:14DL 969	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 20:39 → SDF 22:07DL 2842	6h 16m	97%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON