tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:25 → MSP 08:18DL 2510 2h 42m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 9h 44m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:10 → MSP 12:11DL 2409 2h 09m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → SFO 16:25DL 756 9h 15m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:57 → BOS 08:03DL 5793 · flown by Republic 3h 02m Boston BOS 11:05 → SFO 14:34DL 860 10h 37m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 8h 33m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 2h 36m Chicago ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 10h 04m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → LGA 15:51 → ATL 18:14DL 969 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 21:48 → SFO 23:57DL 656 11h 06m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231 53m Detroit DTW 08:48 → SFO 10:43DL 361 7h 38m 94% 70%
UnitedDetails → LGA 10:15 → IAH 13:06UA 2617 2h 24m Houston IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 10h 20m 96% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:54 → ORD 20:10AA 1795 1h 18m Chicago ORD 21:28 → SFO 00:09 +1AA 3202 8h 15m 75% 43%
UnitedDetails → LGA 16:05 → ORD 17:57UA 1156 51m Chicago ORD 18:48 → SFO 21:20UA 649 8h 15m 72% 41%
AmericanDetails → LGA 16:00 → ORD 18:08AA 396 54m Chicago ORD 19:02 → SFO 22:00AA 2856 9h 00m 69% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON