tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 10:10, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:10 → MSP 12:11DL 2409 3h 19m Minneapolis MSP 15:30 → SJC 17:34DL 2087 10h 24m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 1h 43m Chicago ORD 09:32 → SJC 12:08UA 307 8h 58m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → LGA 14:01 → ATL 16:22DL 988 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 19:50 → SJC 21:41DL 933 10h 40m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:09 → DFW 09:05AA 1043 2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:02 → SJC 13:49AA 2834 10h 40m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → LGA 16:05 → ORD 17:57UA 1156 2h 01m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 9h 38m 93% 66%
AmericanDetails → LGA 14:11 → DFW 16:47AA 1056 3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:06 → SJC 21:56AA 364 10h 45m 96% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 16:16 → DFW 19:06AA 1608 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:06 → SJC 21:56AA 364 8h 40m 74% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON