tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 14:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LGA 14:00 → IAH 17:01UA 2674 3h 00m Houston IAH 20:01 → SNA 21:31UA 326 10h 31m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → LGA 10:04 → DEN 12:27UA 716 3h 38m Denver DEN 16:05 → SNA 17:29UA 1497 10h 25m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:47 → IAH 10:45UA 2371 1h 42m Houston IAH 12:27 → SNA 13:56UA 1533 9h 09m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 51m Chicago ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21UA 1304 8h 11m 91% 77%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:09 → DFW 09:05AA 1043 3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:26 → SNA 13:42AA 2465 10h 33m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → LGA 12:00 → ATL 14:32DL 993 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012 10h 00m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → LGA 15:51 → ATL 18:14DL 969 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 9h 34m 98% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON