tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2412 at 11:29, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2412 Delta Flight history → LGA 11:29 SRQ 13:53 16% 5% 2.0% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SRQ 11:48DL 3104 5h 48m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 15:01 → SRQ 16:37DL 3115 7h 37m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → LGA 12:00 → ATL 14:32DL 993 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 18:20 → SRQ 19:57DL 3109 7h 57m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 3h 21m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 9h 02m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → LGA 15:51 → ATL 18:14DL 969 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 20:51 → SRQ 22:27DL 2997 6h 36m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084 2h 27m Charlotte CLT 10:25 → SRQ 12:24AA 1452 6h 24m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → LGA 17:11 → MIA 20:22AA 3135 2h 32m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 6h 48m 92% 71%
AmericanDetails → LGA 14:31 → CLT 16:53AA 2033 2h 37m Charlotte CLT 19:30 → SRQ 21:23AA 2604 6h 52m 93% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:35 → MIA 21:49AA 3088 1h 05m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 5h 24m 69% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON