Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2531 at 08:46 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 2531 LGA 08:46 → TPA 11:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 508 LGA 15:39 → TPA 18:39 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2531 Delta Flight history →	LGA 08:46	TPA 11:40	12%	3%	1.5%	89%
AA 1976 American	LGA 08:09	TPA 11:06	15%	3%	1.8%	no record
DL 2106 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:05	TPA 15:00	15%	5%	1.6%	85%
DL 2404 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:00	TPA 19:21	18%	8%	1.5%	74%
AA 508 American Flight history →	LGA 15:39	TPA 18:39	30%	8%	1.8%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON