tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Tulsa on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 4605 Republic LGA 09:06 TUL 11:43 13% 3% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 12:04DL 2620 7h 04m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → TUL 16:44DL 2837 7h 44m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → LGA 10:04 → DEN 12:27UA 716 1h 13m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 7h 25m 94% 79%
UnitedDetails → LGA 14:00 → IAH 17:01UA 2674 3h 13m Houston IAH 20:14 → TUL 21:52UA 6269 · flown by Mesa 8h 52m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → LGA 08:11 → CLT 09:58AA 3279 2h 34m Charlotte CLT 12:32 → TUL 14:12AA 2657 7h 01m 93% 77%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 56m Chicago ORD 08:45 → TUL 11:03UA 5795 · flown by SkyWest 5h 53m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → LGA 15:51 → ATL 18:14DL 969 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → TUL 22:18DL 2043 7h 27m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → LGA 10:15 → ORD 11:57UA 1310 3h 38m Chicago ORD 15:35 → TUL 17:42UA 4482 · flown by GoJet 8h 27m 98% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON