Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Traverse City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:25 → MSP 08:18DL 2510	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 10:29 → TVC 13:04DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	6h 39m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999	1h 51m Detroit	DTW 21:30 → TVC 22:41DL 2424	5h 41m	94%	73%
American Details →	LGA 08:08 → ORD 09:45AA 392	2h 27m Chicago	ORD 12:12 → TVC 14:32AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	6h 24m	99%	72%
United Details →	LGA 16:05 → ORD 17:57UA 1156	3h 26m Chicago	ORD 21:23 → TVC 23:29UA 2071	7h 24m	96%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON