tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:25 → MSP 08:18DL 2510 2h 17m Minneapolis MSP 10:35 → VPS 13:13DL 2462 7h 48m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048 5h 29m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 12:00 → ATL 14:32DL 993 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803 7h 42m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → VPS 14:11DL 2832 6h 11m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 15:49 → VPS 16:05DL 2170 7h 05m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → LGA 17:11 → MIA 20:22AA 3135 2h 48m Miami MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy 7h 48m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → LGA 18:00 → ATL 21:20DL 964 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 22:50 → VPS 23:03DL 3097 6h 03m 91% 74%
AmericanDetails → LGA 12:10 → CLT 14:14AA 1150 2h 42m Charlotte CLT 16:56 → VPS 17:49AA 5201 · flown by PSA 6h 39m 98% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON