Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 4472 at 13:13, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4472 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:13	XNA 15:35	8%	4%	1.5%	77%
DL 5482 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:15	XNA 10:32	20%	7%	3.0%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LGA 06:09 → DFW 09:05AA 1043	3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:42 → XNA 14:03AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	8h 54m	99%	85%
American Details →	LGA 08:35 → DFW 11:25AA 1987	2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:16 → XNA 15:37AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	8h 02m	98%	83%
American Details →	LGA 11:06 → CLT 12:56AA 2036	2h 45m Charlotte	CLT 15:41 → XNA 17:08AA 5233 · flown by PSA	7h 02m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	LGA 12:00 → ATL 14:32DL 993	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 17:19 → XNA 18:14DL 2771	7h 14m	99%	83%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	54m Charlotte	CLT 08:52 → XNA 10:18AA 5327 · flown by PSA	5h 18m	93%	82%
American Details →	LGA 08:08 → ORD 09:45AA 392	2h 09m Chicago	ORD 11:54 → XNA 13:42AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	6h 34m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	LGA 14:01 → ATL 16:22DL 988	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 19:36 → XNA 20:32DL 1710	7h 31m	98%	78%
United Details →	LGA 14:00 → IAH 17:01UA 2674	3h 11m Houston	IAH 20:12 → XNA 21:55UA 6308 · flown by Mesa	8h 55m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 16:00 → ORD 18:08AA 396	51m Chicago	ORD 18:59 → XNA 20:52AA 3578 · flown by Envoy	5h 52m	72%	56%
American Details →	LGA 16:16 → DFW 19:06AA 1608	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:55 → XNA 21:20AA 1197	6h 04m	69%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON