Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1379 LGB 07:56 → HNL 11:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 869 LGB 07:31 → HNL 10:25 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1379 Southwest	LGB 07:56	HNL 11:04	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4998 Southwest	LGB 12:12	HNL 15:05	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 869 Alaska Flight history →	LGB 07:31	HNL 10:25	14%	4%	0.8%	88%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	LGB 08:16 → OGG 10:52AS 971	2h 09m Kahului	OGG 13:01 → HNL 13:51AS 1105	8h 35m	98%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON