Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2586 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2586 LIH 06:10 → HNL 07:04 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1104 LIH 14:52 → HNL 15:41 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2586 Southwest	LIH 06:10	HNL 07:04	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2587 Southwest	LIH 08:15	HNL 09:09	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
AS 1004 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 06:00	HNL 06:36	8%	2%	2.2%	95%
WN 2588 Southwest	LIH 11:45	HNL 12:44	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2590 Southwest	LIH 18:59	HNL 19:53	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2589 Southwest	LIH 15:39	HNL 16:33	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1014 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 07:12	HNL 07:48	10%	4%	2.1%	94%
AS 1024 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 08:22	HNL 08:59	12%	3%	2.2%	87%
AS 1144 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 17:47	HNL 18:36	19%	7%	1.7%	78%
AS 1154 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 18:21	HNL 19:10	20%	7%	1.9%	78%
AS 1134 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 16:58	HNL 17:47	20%	8%	1.9%	77%
AS 1034 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 09:04	HNL 09:42	20%	5%	2.1%	88%
AS 1124 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 16:12	HNL 17:01	21%	8%	2.1%	77%
AS 1064 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 10:59	HNL 11:48	22%	4%	2.2%	77%
AS 1174 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 19:54	HNL 20:43	22%	7%	1.7%	83%
AS 1164 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 19:19	HNL 20:08	23%	8%	1.8%	78%
AS 1074 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 11:46	HNL 12:35	23%	5%	2.2%	79%
AS 1114 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 15:42	HNL 16:31	23%	7%	2.1%	72%
AS 1054 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 10:19	HNL 11:08	23%	4%	2.2%	84%
AS 1294 Alaska	LIH 13:25	HNL 14:14	23%	6%	2.1%	no record
AS 1184 Alaska	LIH 20:43	HNL 21:32	24%	7%	1.8%	no record
AS 1084 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 12:39	HNL 13:28	27%	6%	2.2%	74%
AS 1104 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 14:52	HNL 15:41	27%	9%	2.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON