Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 1120 at 17:02, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1120 Alaska Flight history →	LIH 17:02	KOA 17:55	19%	6%	0.6%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LIH 06:00 → HNL 06:36AS 1004	2h 02m Honolulu	HNL 08:38 → KOA 09:36AS 1058	3h 36m	99%	85%
Alaska Details →	LIH 07:12 → HNL 07:48AS 1014	1h 19m Honolulu	HNL 09:07 → KOA 10:05AS 1068	2h 53m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	LIH 14:52 → HNL 15:41AS 1104	3h 12m Honolulu	HNL 18:53 → KOA 19:51AS 1168	4h 59m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	2h 05m Honolulu	HNL 11:04 → KOA 12:02AS 1088	3h 40m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:53 → OGG 10:57AS 1150	3h 06m Kahului	OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140	4h 46m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	LIH 09:04 → HNL 09:42AS 1034	1h 51m Honolulu	HNL 11:33 → KOA 12:31AS 1098	3h 27m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	LIH 16:58 → HNL 17:47AS 1134	3h 16m Honolulu	HNL 21:03 → KOA 21:50AS 1178	4h 52m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:59 → HNL 11:48AS 1064	1h 40m Honolulu	HNL 13:28 → KOA 14:26AS 1128	3h 27m	99%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LIH 08:22 → HNL 08:59AS 1024	47m Honolulu	HNL 09:46 → KOA 10:19AS 9642	1h 57m	68%	55%
Alaska Details →	LIH 11:46 → HNL 12:35AS 1074	53m Honolulu	HNL 13:28 → KOA 14:26AS 1128	2h 40m	60%	45%
Alaska Details →	LIH 10:19 → HNL 11:08AS 1054	52m Honolulu	HNL 12:00 → KOA 12:58AS 1108	2h 39m	58%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON